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9 Jan 2015
Key events coming up in the US shift - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained the key up coming events and suggested that today it’s all about US payrolls, so effectively we can expect to see little market action until then. "Nonetheless, there are other events and data".
Key Quotes:
"We get another Fed dove shortly, Kocherlakota, speaking on monetary policy. Expect the message to be another one equities will like. China has PPI (hint: expect more deflation), Germany has industrial production (consensus: +0.3% MoM), and we get UK trade data and industrial production (consensus: +0.2% MoM) as well."
"However, all eyes will be on the payrolls report, where the expectation is 240K, down from 321K but clearly a good reading, and a tick decline in official unemployment to 5.7% (the underemployment rate was 11.4% last month but has no forecast). Average earnings growth is seen at +0.2% MoM and +2.2% YoY. Really, unless we get a surprise either side, does this tell us anything we haven’t known for some time? The US economy is doing better – but wages growth is still weak".
"The Fed need to make up their mind: are they fighting a plaisance, or is there a real dragon for them to slay? If so, out with the vorpal blade and snicker-snack! But the Fed still refuses to do so, arguing that the outlook is too brillig."
"Post payrolls, we get Evans on CNBC, which is likely to be a love-in for equities, and then Lacker, who is also in the “patient” camp, speaks on the 2015 outlook. In short, someone in the market is bound to hear something they like today from someone even if we do get a data surprise."
Key Quotes:
"We get another Fed dove shortly, Kocherlakota, speaking on monetary policy. Expect the message to be another one equities will like. China has PPI (hint: expect more deflation), Germany has industrial production (consensus: +0.3% MoM), and we get UK trade data and industrial production (consensus: +0.2% MoM) as well."
"However, all eyes will be on the payrolls report, where the expectation is 240K, down from 321K but clearly a good reading, and a tick decline in official unemployment to 5.7% (the underemployment rate was 11.4% last month but has no forecast). Average earnings growth is seen at +0.2% MoM and +2.2% YoY. Really, unless we get a surprise either side, does this tell us anything we haven’t known for some time? The US economy is doing better – but wages growth is still weak".
"The Fed need to make up their mind: are they fighting a plaisance, or is there a real dragon for them to slay? If so, out with the vorpal blade and snicker-snack! But the Fed still refuses to do so, arguing that the outlook is too brillig."
"Post payrolls, we get Evans on CNBC, which is likely to be a love-in for equities, and then Lacker, who is also in the “patient” camp, speaks on the 2015 outlook. In short, someone in the market is bound to hear something they like today from someone even if we do get a data surprise."