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11 Mar 2015
Minor revisions to UK’s GDP forecasts – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior Economist at RBS, expects only minor revisions to the OBR’s GDP forecasts, expecting lower oil prices to lead to upward revision for 2015 and 2016 growth figures.
Key Quotes
“We expect only modest revisions to real GDP growth forecasts – hardly a great surprise given that the OBR’s forecasts were published just three months ago.”
“We expect the OBR to nudge up its forecasts for 2015 (2.6% from 2.4%) and 2016 (2.4% from 2.2%), principally a reflection of lower inflation/oil prices and additional global monetary policy stimulus. Beyond 2016, we expect unrevised outturns with GDP running fractionally above the OBR’s estimate of trend (2.2%).”
“OBR forecasts have tended to be fairly consensual and, in this context, it is notable that City consensus forecasts are little altered vs the tail-end of last year: forecasts for UK growth in 2015 have inched up to 2.7% from 2.6% with this pace of expansion expected to broadly persist in 2016”
“As with the OBR’s real GDP forecasts, we expect only modest revisions from 2017 onwards, once inflation base effects have washed-out. In the context of the NGDP forecasts it is worth noting that, relative to the OBR’s Autumn Statement projections, NGDP has come in weaker than expected (4.4% in 2014 vs a forecast of 5.0%) yet tax receipts are in-line with OBR.”
“In short, the economic recovery on the latest set of data looks a little bit more tax-revenue rich than it did back in the autumn.”
Key Quotes
“We expect only modest revisions to real GDP growth forecasts – hardly a great surprise given that the OBR’s forecasts were published just three months ago.”
“We expect the OBR to nudge up its forecasts for 2015 (2.6% from 2.4%) and 2016 (2.4% from 2.2%), principally a reflection of lower inflation/oil prices and additional global monetary policy stimulus. Beyond 2016, we expect unrevised outturns with GDP running fractionally above the OBR’s estimate of trend (2.2%).”
“OBR forecasts have tended to be fairly consensual and, in this context, it is notable that City consensus forecasts are little altered vs the tail-end of last year: forecasts for UK growth in 2015 have inched up to 2.7% from 2.6% with this pace of expansion expected to broadly persist in 2016”
“As with the OBR’s real GDP forecasts, we expect only modest revisions from 2017 onwards, once inflation base effects have washed-out. In the context of the NGDP forecasts it is worth noting that, relative to the OBR’s Autumn Statement projections, NGDP has come in weaker than expected (4.4% in 2014 vs a forecast of 5.0%) yet tax receipts are in-line with OBR.”
“In short, the economic recovery on the latest set of data looks a little bit more tax-revenue rich than it did back in the autumn.”