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16 Mar 2015
Canadian employment picture better at 2nd glance - DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - John Clinkard, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, reviews the Canadian employment data release, and explains that the oil related slump in employment in few areas is being more than offset by stronger job growth in Central Canada.
Key Quotes
“Following a stronger-than-expected (by the Bloomberg Finance LP consensus) net gain of 35.4k jobs in January, total employment reverted in February with a net loss of 1k. This print was somewhat above the Bloomberg consensus (-5k) and slightly under the DB estimate (0k).”
“Following an increase of 47.2k in January, part time employment fell by 34.9k in February more than offsetting a 34.0k increase in full time employment which had declined by 11.8k in the previous month. The slight 1k retreat in total employment in February was accompanied by 49.2k increase in the labour force.”
“As a result the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.8% which was above both the Bloomberg consensus estimate (6.7%) and the DB estimate (6.6%) and the highest value for the series since September of last year.”
“The drop in goods producing employment was almost offset by a 27.2k increase in employment in services.”
“Across the country, employment contracted in eight of the ten provinces led by Alberta (-14k), Employment in Central Canada rose by 30.6k due a 16.8k increase in Quebec and a 13.8k rise in Ontario.”
“The fact that employment growth over the past two months has averaged 17k and full time employment has risen by 166.4k over the past six months suggests that the depressing impact of the lower oil prices on employment in Alberta and Saskatchewan and Newfoundland is being more than offset by the stronger job growth in Central Canada.”
Key Quotes
“Following a stronger-than-expected (by the Bloomberg Finance LP consensus) net gain of 35.4k jobs in January, total employment reverted in February with a net loss of 1k. This print was somewhat above the Bloomberg consensus (-5k) and slightly under the DB estimate (0k).”
“Following an increase of 47.2k in January, part time employment fell by 34.9k in February more than offsetting a 34.0k increase in full time employment which had declined by 11.8k in the previous month. The slight 1k retreat in total employment in February was accompanied by 49.2k increase in the labour force.”
“As a result the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.8% which was above both the Bloomberg consensus estimate (6.7%) and the DB estimate (6.6%) and the highest value for the series since September of last year.”
“The drop in goods producing employment was almost offset by a 27.2k increase in employment in services.”
“Across the country, employment contracted in eight of the ten provinces led by Alberta (-14k), Employment in Central Canada rose by 30.6k due a 16.8k increase in Quebec and a 13.8k rise in Ontario.”
“The fact that employment growth over the past two months has averaged 17k and full time employment has risen by 166.4k over the past six months suggests that the depressing impact of the lower oil prices on employment in Alberta and Saskatchewan and Newfoundland is being more than offset by the stronger job growth in Central Canada.”