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14 Apr 2015
Too soon for ECB taper – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank, has practically ruled out any comments on ECB’s QE taper at the next meeting on Thursday.
Key Quotes
“In other words, the recent improvement in data is positive but not yet convincing in our view”.
“As a final point we think it would be unwise for the ECB to change the goal posts so shortly after having started its Extended Asset Purchase Program. Certainly it would do no good for its credibility, but it may even backfire”.
“Recall that the ECB is not the only central bank engaged in easing monetary policy”.
“A sharp reversal in the euro cannot be excluded if the ECB signalled the possibility of halting its purchases earlier than planned”.
“At the least, we would expect the Governing Council to await fresh developments in monetary policy at the other side of the Atlantic”.
“Our house view is that the Fed will not move before Q4. Hence, the best President Draghi could do at this early stage of QE, in our view, is to emphasize its medium to long-term nature”.
“Whilst we expect Draghi to highlight that the program has already bore some fruit (as he did in the previous press conference), we argue it is too early to cry victory. And so we don’t expect him to do so either”.
Key Quotes
“In other words, the recent improvement in data is positive but not yet convincing in our view”.
“As a final point we think it would be unwise for the ECB to change the goal posts so shortly after having started its Extended Asset Purchase Program. Certainly it would do no good for its credibility, but it may even backfire”.
“Recall that the ECB is not the only central bank engaged in easing monetary policy”.
“A sharp reversal in the euro cannot be excluded if the ECB signalled the possibility of halting its purchases earlier than planned”.
“At the least, we would expect the Governing Council to await fresh developments in monetary policy at the other side of the Atlantic”.
“Our house view is that the Fed will not move before Q4. Hence, the best President Draghi could do at this early stage of QE, in our view, is to emphasize its medium to long-term nature”.
“Whilst we expect Draghi to highlight that the program has already bore some fruit (as he did in the previous press conference), we argue it is too early to cry victory. And so we don’t expect him to do so either”.