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30 Sep 2013
Flash: EUR/USD to 'go with' 1.3570 or 1.3465 breakout - TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Given conflicting signals in EUR/USD, the market is likely to “go with” a move either above 1.3570 or below 1.3465 in the near-term, thinks Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
"EUR/USD shows conflicting signals—strong, bull trend versus overbought—over a range of timeframes which suggests that while the basic set up here looks constructive (potential bull flag break out above 1.3570), the market looks stretched."
"Weekly studies reflect the picture on the short-term charts—bullish trend momentum versus heavily overbought signals on the slow stochastic oscillators."
"There is no conviction behind the EUR’s rally, it would seem. A down week this week would be a major negative for the medium-term picture (major reversal potential on a big net loss) but absent a reversal, the EUR still risks grinding up towards 1.3700/10 having moved above 1.34."
"We still rather think EUR/USD is stuck in a big, broad range—and closer to the top of the range at 1.37 than the lower end 1.27"
Key Quotes
"EUR/USD shows conflicting signals—strong, bull trend versus overbought—over a range of timeframes which suggests that while the basic set up here looks constructive (potential bull flag break out above 1.3570), the market looks stretched."
"Weekly studies reflect the picture on the short-term charts—bullish trend momentum versus heavily overbought signals on the slow stochastic oscillators."
"There is no conviction behind the EUR’s rally, it would seem. A down week this week would be a major negative for the medium-term picture (major reversal potential on a big net loss) but absent a reversal, the EUR still risks grinding up towards 1.3700/10 having moved above 1.34."
"We still rather think EUR/USD is stuck in a big, broad range—and closer to the top of the range at 1.37 than the lower end 1.27"