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22 Jan 2016
FED: Next hike unlikely before June - Rabobank
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Next week, one of the main events will be the FOMC meeting, the first one after the historic December rate hike. According to analysts from Rabobank, the US central bank will not raise rates until before the June meeting.
Key Quotes:
“While employment data suggest that the US economy has not lost momentum, the negative impact of the global economy on the manufacturing and mining sectors does show up in GDP data, in particular through business investment, inventories and net trade. In retrospect, the Fed managed to plan its liftoff date in one of the weakest quarters in terms of GDP growth since the US came out of recession in mid-2009.”
“Recent developments are not likely to have eased the concerns about the downside risks to inflation that some FOMC members already had at the time of the December hike. This means that it will be more difficult to reach consensus on another hike in the near term. Therefore we do not expect the next hike before the June meeting.”
“This month’s meeting does not include an update of the economic projections nor a press conference. Therefore we only have the formal statement to look forward to. The FOMC is likely to acknowledge the substantial slowdown in GDP growth that took place in Q4. Note that the December statement already stressed the importance of monitoring actual and expected progress of inflation toward its 2% target to keep all the doves on board.
“While some Fed speakers continue to be complacent, we have our doubts about both the inflation outlook and the pace of the economic recovery, and consequently also about the four rate hikes that the Fed intends to deliver this year. In fact, a few Fed speakers now appear to share our concerns.”
Key Quotes:
“While employment data suggest that the US economy has not lost momentum, the negative impact of the global economy on the manufacturing and mining sectors does show up in GDP data, in particular through business investment, inventories and net trade. In retrospect, the Fed managed to plan its liftoff date in one of the weakest quarters in terms of GDP growth since the US came out of recession in mid-2009.”
“Recent developments are not likely to have eased the concerns about the downside risks to inflation that some FOMC members already had at the time of the December hike. This means that it will be more difficult to reach consensus on another hike in the near term. Therefore we do not expect the next hike before the June meeting.”
“This month’s meeting does not include an update of the economic projections nor a press conference. Therefore we only have the formal statement to look forward to. The FOMC is likely to acknowledge the substantial slowdown in GDP growth that took place in Q4. Note that the December statement already stressed the importance of monitoring actual and expected progress of inflation toward its 2% target to keep all the doves on board.
“While some Fed speakers continue to be complacent, we have our doubts about both the inflation outlook and the pace of the economic recovery, and consequently also about the four rate hikes that the Fed intends to deliver this year. In fact, a few Fed speakers now appear to share our concerns.”