US NFP: Consensus is for 180k increase in June - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the FX market is quiet ahead of the US jobs report as most of the major currencies are trading within recent ranges, though cable and dollar/yen remain near the bottom of their respective ranges.

Key Quotes

“During the North American session, the June jobs data will be the highlight.  ADP jobs data came in slightly better than expected at 172k vs. 160k consensus and a revised 168k (was 173k) in May.  For NFP, consensus is 180k vs. 38k in May.  Average hourly earnings are seen picking up to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% in May, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.8% from 4.75 in May.

Markets are basically pricing in no move by the Fed in July or for all of 2016, for that matter.  It will take a lot to change this view, especially in light of the perceived dovish FOMC minutes Wednesday.  Still, every journey starts with a single step and a strong jobs report today would be a good start.  There are no Fed speakers today.”