US retail sales expected to be kept in check by autos and gasoline - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US will report August retail sales this week and the headline is expected to be kept in check by autos and gasoline. 

Key Quotes

“The median forecast is of a 0.1% decline.  However, the underlying news should be better than the headline.  Excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, the component used for GDP calculations is expected to rise 0.4%.

US policymakers may be encouraged by such a report.  Over the past 12 months, the average monthly increase as been 0.3%.   Despite the disappointing PMI, the US economy is likely to post its strongest growth since Q2 2015 (NY Fed GDP tracker) or mid-2014 (Atlanta Fed GDP tracker).”