US Dollar stuck around 99.00, FOMC eyed

The US Dollar Index – which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main rivals – is navigating a very tight range around the critical 99.00 handle.

US Dollar now looks to FOMC

The index is extending its consolidative theme in the lower bound of the recent range, gravitating around the 99.00 handle as market participants continue to wait for the FOMC interest rate decision due tomorrow.

Market consensus expects the Committee to keep the monetary stance intact tomorrow, with the probability of a rate hike at just below 5% according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Instead, the probability of higher rates to be announced at the June meeting remains above 67%.

In the meantime, USD is eroding the critical 12-month support/resistance line, expecting for a catalyst to define the next movement.

Nothing expected in the US data space today, while the already mentioned FOMC meeting due tomorrow along with the ADP report (180K exp.) and the ISM Non-manufacturing (55.8 exp.).

US Dollar relevant levels

The index is losing 0.02% at 98.96 and a break below 98.58 (low Apr.28) would open the door to 98.56 (2017 low Apr.25) and then 95.91 (low Nov.9 2016). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 99.06 (200-day sma) seconded by 99.21 (high Apr.27) and finally 99.24 (high Apr.24).