Back
6 Mar 2014
Flash: US docket hurt by bad weather - BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, noted the weather-distorted data from the US economy as of late.
Key Quotes
"The US dollar continues to remain on the defensive in the near-term reflecting the recent slowdown in the US economy. The release yesterday of the latest ADP and ISM non-manufacturing surveys for February both proved weaker than expected increasing the likelihood that the non-farm payrolls report for February will also be weak."
"The ADP survey estimated that private employment growth is likely to pick up only modestly rising by 139k/month in February following a downwardly revised estimated gain of 127k in January. The ISM non-manufacturing survey revealed that business confidence weakened further in February to 51.6 reaching its lowest level since February 2010."
"Weakness was most notable in the employment sub-component which declined very sharply by -8.9 point to 47.5 reaching its lowest level since March 2010. It was the second largest monthly decline on record after the -11.3 point decline recorded in November 2008."
"The scale of the decline suggests that the bad weather is likely exaggerating the deterioration in US labour market conditions. However, it also raises the risk that the recent US economic slowdown may not be entirely driven by bad weather which may prompt the Fed to consider slowing the pace of QE tapering ahead although the bar appears high."
Key Quotes
"The US dollar continues to remain on the defensive in the near-term reflecting the recent slowdown in the US economy. The release yesterday of the latest ADP and ISM non-manufacturing surveys for February both proved weaker than expected increasing the likelihood that the non-farm payrolls report for February will also be weak."
"The ADP survey estimated that private employment growth is likely to pick up only modestly rising by 139k/month in February following a downwardly revised estimated gain of 127k in January. The ISM non-manufacturing survey revealed that business confidence weakened further in February to 51.6 reaching its lowest level since February 2010."
"Weakness was most notable in the employment sub-component which declined very sharply by -8.9 point to 47.5 reaching its lowest level since March 2010. It was the second largest monthly decline on record after the -11.3 point decline recorded in November 2008."
"The scale of the decline suggests that the bad weather is likely exaggerating the deterioration in US labour market conditions. However, it also raises the risk that the recent US economic slowdown may not be entirely driven by bad weather which may prompt the Fed to consider slowing the pace of QE tapering ahead although the bar appears high."