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6 Jun 2014
Key events left for the closing week - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Rabobank analysts highlight the key upcoming events for the rest of the week in the FX Space.
Key Quotes:
“Today we have a string of second-tier data early on: German industrial production (seen +0.4% MoM); German exports for April (seen +1.3% MoM); and UK trade balance (expected at –GBP1,500)”.
“The action starts later with May US payrolls, which at present seems to be one of the few economic releases that is still able to make significant waves in markets (as opposed to the “equities levitate regardless/FX vol declines” reaction to most other numbers – for which Australian trade and Chinese services PMI yesterday were the latest Exhibits A and B, respectively)”.
“The consensus for payrolls is 215K, down from a strong 288K in April, but the disappointment in the vaguely related (think second cousins) ADP Employment release does suggest the potential for some downside risk. If so, that would likely be bullish for Treasuries given the slight selling in recent sessions, but equities would no doubt also be happy with the prospect of an even longer period of monetary policy largesse. Ironically, a very strong print could see both rates and equities sell off in tandem at the prospect of Kocherlakota’s soothing words yesterday being out-voted by Fed hawks”.
Key Quotes:
“Today we have a string of second-tier data early on: German industrial production (seen +0.4% MoM); German exports for April (seen +1.3% MoM); and UK trade balance (expected at –GBP1,500)”.
“The action starts later with May US payrolls, which at present seems to be one of the few economic releases that is still able to make significant waves in markets (as opposed to the “equities levitate regardless/FX vol declines” reaction to most other numbers – for which Australian trade and Chinese services PMI yesterday were the latest Exhibits A and B, respectively)”.
“The consensus for payrolls is 215K, down from a strong 288K in April, but the disappointment in the vaguely related (think second cousins) ADP Employment release does suggest the potential for some downside risk. If so, that would likely be bullish for Treasuries given the slight selling in recent sessions, but equities would no doubt also be happy with the prospect of an even longer period of monetary policy largesse. Ironically, a very strong print could see both rates and equities sell off in tandem at the prospect of Kocherlakota’s soothing words yesterday being out-voted by Fed hawks”.