USD/JPY: Yen to recover most of its losses next year on BoJ's monetary policy shift – Nordea

The discrepancy between monetary policy against the Bank of Japan and the rest of the G10 central banks is taking its toll on the yen. Thus, the JPY will remain weak until the BoJ shifts gears, economists at Nordea report.

Loose monetary policy is the problem for JPY

“FX intervention will not be looked upon as welcomed by the remaining G7 countries if Japan unilaterally decides to intervene, and we believe that the bar for actual intervention is quite high and that the JPY would need to come above 148 against the USD before a real intervention is in the cards.”

“What will stop the yen-weakening is a shift in monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. Such a shift could easily come when the current BoJ Governor Kuroda retires in April 2023. We thus expect the JPY, which is the worst G10 performer against the USD this year, to recover most of its losses next year.”